Every year there undoubtedly is a player who has a breakout performance and who receives a lot of attention on the waiver wire.

Then he falls back into obscurity and the owner who claimed him on the waiver wire just lost a roster spot.

One of the most difficult things to do is gauge whether a strong performance from a player is indicative of his future success, or if he just had an anomaly. There’s no special formula for figuring this out, other than to pay attention to the week in which it happened.

I have a general rule that if someone looks too good to be true in the first month of the season, he probably is, and I stay away from him. Sometimes that theory is wrong and the player will have a full season of success. But most of the time, that player comes back down to earth.