We’re going to go through a 15-round, 12-team PPR Mock Draft via Sleeper and build a draft strategy for Pick 10.
First, here is my general fantasy football redraft strategy summed up:
Go running back heavy and wide receiver deep; snag a late-round quarterback and a “great or late” tight end; punt on the kickers and defenses until the very last rounds; avoid the low-ceiling players unless they have very high floors.
I’m not going to lie, Pick 10 is where the draft slots start to suck. The “great” running backs are long gone and we’re staring down a decision of selecting a “good” running back or a “great” receiver. The receiver is awfully tempting to me, but I still prefer to get two running backs in the first two rounds if the value presents itself.
The running back “dead zone” — the point in the draft where there is a poor hit rate on selecting running backs — can fluctuate from year to year, but is typically between Rounds 4 and Round 6. We want to avoid selecting running backs here, which is why we should try to grab two of them in the first three rounds, if possible.
I like like to wait on quarterbacks until the double-digit rounds because there is usually such good depth at the position. If one should happen to slide much further than his ADP, I will consider jumping in and snagging him.
As for tight ends, if I can’t get one of the premium ones who plays like a receiver, I will wait until the double-digit rounds on that position as well.
Here’s a little outline of how I like to target positions from the 10 slot. This is just a guideline, though, because I will be flexible and look to add the best value possible.
|Round 1||RB or WR|
|Round 2||Premium TE, RB or WR|
|Round 3||WR or RB|
|Round 7||RB or WR|
|Round 8||RB or WR|
|Round 9||RB or WR|
|Round 10||QB, RB, WR, or TE|
|Round 11||QB, RB, WR, or TE|
|Round 12||QB, RB, WR, or TE|
|Round 13||QB, RB, WR, or TE|
Round 1 – Joe Mixon, RB/CIN
My biggest fear with selecting Mixon here is that he has had more seasons of disappointment due to injury than I care to remember. He has only played two full seasons and only one with double-digit touchdowns — just last year. But, that’s the dilemma with drafting in this slot. He still has great upside in a dynamic offense. We’ll just have to secure the running back position.
Round 2 – Davante Adams, WR/LV
I don’t like the running backs here and I’m not going to reach for one and pass up on other value, so we’ll go with Adams. He will take a dip in production due to the downgrade in quarterback. But don’t get me wrong: he will be a focal point of that offense and still be a very productive WR1.
Round 3 – Cam Akers, RB/LAR
Similar to Mixon, but on a shorter scale, Akers has had his struggles with health as well. But he is a young, dynamic back who has shown us a glimpse of what he can do when he is, in fact, healthy. And playing for a high-powered offense in L.A. is a major reason why I’m comfortable taking here. But as I said, we’ll continue to hit the running back position just to cover our bases.
Round 4 – Travis Etienne, RB/JAX
And it’s a trifecta of injured running backs! Well, okay, to be fair, Etienne has only been in the league for a year. It’s not fair to label him with an injury history. I also think it’s a small reach for Etienne early in the fourth — I’d rather have him in the mid-to-late fourth round. But, alas, the dilemma of picking close to the turn. When Etienne finally gets on the field and shows us what he can do, I think he can be a dynamic PPR machine.
Round 5 – Mike Williams, WR/LAC
I’m thrilled with Mike Williams here as our second wide receiver. And yes, just add him to our list of walking wounded. But he plays for a dynamic offense and could very well take over the No. 1 spot in that receiving corps.
Round 6 – A.J. Dillon, RB/GB
Dillon actually had more carries that Aaron Jones last year, if you can believe it. And with the Packers having a shaky receiving corps, I expect Jones to spend more time outside catching passes and Dillon’s workload to be even higher. As our fourth running back, I love this pick.
Round 7 – Russell Wilson, QB/DEN
I think Russ is absolutely going to cook this year. He goes to a much better offense with a more diverse weaponry (I can’t say Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are better than D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but the Broncos’ receiving corps is deeper). He could very well have his best season as a pro, and he’s a good pickup here for our team.
Round 8 – Rashod Bateman, WR/BAL
This is an upside play here. The Ravens passed a little more than they usually do last year and I have concerns that they’ll go back to a run-heavy team. But when they do throw the ball, it’ll be to Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. I’m betting on Bateman’s talent and upside to come through as a No. 3 receiver for us. But just to secure our bases, we’ll continue to load up at receiver from this point on.
Round 9 – Allen Lazard, WR/GB
I don’t love the pick because Lazard has been in the league for four seasons and hasn’t proven a whole lot. But that Packers’ receiving corps is dreadful and Lazard is increasingly looking like he’ll be Aaron Rodgers’ No. 1 — which has tremendous value.
Round 10 – Skyy Moore, WR/KC
Status check: we have a quarterback, four running backs and four receivers. That’s a nice balance to have at this point in the draft. This is another good spot to go with a player who has a chance to be a No. 1 receiving option for a great quarterback. Moore, unlike Lazard, has not played in the league yet, so he has a lot to prove. But his upside is tremendous.
Round 11 – Jarvis Landry, WR/NO
With all the upside picks we’ve taken who have come with risk, I thought we should go with a safe floor guy here in Landry. He may be getting older and finds himself on a new team with other options in that receiving corps. But I like his prospects of having strong FLEX appeal. He instantly connected with Jameis Winston upon signing with the Saints and is a nice security blanket for Winston to dump the ball off to.
Round 12 – Irv Smith, TE/MIN
Many thought that Smith’s breakout would have come last year, but he battled a few injuries and competition from Tyler Conklin. Well, Conklin is gone now and the Vikings also have a new head coach in Kevin O’Connell, who comes from the mighty Rams. I think they’ll throw the ball more this year and I believe Smith has a good chance to break into a backend TE1.
Round 13 – Jalen Tolbert, WR/DAL
With our last “real pick”, I’m going with the rookie Tolbert, who could very well be a Week 1 starter due to Michael Gallup’s injury rehab. And I think that even when Gallup returns, Tolbert could see a lot of three-receiver set reps.
Round 14 – Los Angeles Chargers, DST/LAC
I’m going with the Chargers, because, why not…?
Round 15 – Brandon McManus, K/DEN
I continue to go with McManus in this last round because I think that Broncos offense is going to be real good this year.
I hope this Pick 10 draft strategy along with its application in a mock draft has given you some general guidelines and principles in how to maximize your roster from this draft slot.
In summary, you can lay out a plan of attack but you must remember to always be flexible and look for value when it presents itself.