In fantasy football, the running back position is often seen as the backbone of a championship team. Securing a reliable workhorse can make all the difference.
However, the allure of past production or perceived opportunity can sometimes inflate a player’s Average Draft Position (ADP), leading unsuspecting owners into a trap.
As we look ahead to the 2025 season, several prominent running backs carry red flags that suggest their current draft cost is simply too high. From age and injury concerns to shifting team dynamics and looming competition, understanding these potential pitfalls is crucial to drafting a winning roster.
Here are five running backs whose current ADPs should make you pump the brakes on draft day.
Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles): The Golden Rule of investing is to never buy a stock at its peak. You’ve got to buy low, sell high. Barkley is undoubtedly one of the most dynamic talents in the NFL, and his move to the Philadelphia Eagles seemed like a match made in heaven for fantasy owners, culminating in a dominant 2024 season. However, his current ADP, often placing him as a top-2 or top-3 running back — which sometimes includes a Top 5 pick overall — carries significant risk. While the Eagles boast a strong offensive line and a run-friendly scheme, Barkley is entering his prime at a position notorious for rapid decline after age 27, and he’s now on the wrong side of that curve. His 2024 production, including an exceptionally high touchdown rate and a career-best 5.8 yards per carry, could be an outlier. Expecting him to replicate an almost 2,300-yard, 15-touchdown season is a tall order. Furthermore, the Eagles could look to lighten his workload and there’s always the chance of more distribution than fantasy owners hope for, especially as they look to preserve him. Barkley is still a solid pick, but there are other studs you could take ahead of him to maximize your talent.
Josh Jacobs (Green Bay Packers): Jacobs had a resurgent 2024 season with the Green Bay Packers, proving he could still be a workhorse back and posting strong rushing and touchdown numbers. This performance has rightfully pushed his 2025 ADP higher, often into the mid-RB1 range. However, relying on a repeat performance at that cost presents several concerns. Jacobs is now 27 years old, an age where running back efficiency often begins to decline. While he saw significant volume in 2024, the Packers did invest a third-round pick in MarShawn Lloyd in 2024, who missed most of his rookie season but could be poised for a larger role in 2025 as the team looks to diversify its backfield. Jacobs’ 2024 success was heavily reliant on high volume and a significant number of touchdowns, neither of which is a guarantee to repeat.
David Montgomery (Detroit Lions): Montgomery has been an instrumental part of the Lions’ offense the past few seasons under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. There’s just one problem: Johnson is no longer there. Monty finished as a reliable RB2 in 2024, which is likely keeping his 2025 ADP relatively stable. However, the presence of Jahmyr Gibbs significantly caps Montgomery’s upside. Gibbs is the more explosive, efficient, and receiving-oriented back, and the Lions have increasingly leaned on him. While Montgomery remains the primary early-down and goal-line back, there’s a strong possibility that Gibbs’ workload will continue to increase, eating into Montgomery’s touches and potentially his valuable goal-line opportunities. Montgomery’s fantasy value is highly contingent on touchdown volume, which can be volatile year-to-year. If his ADP assumes a similar share of touches and red-zone work as 2024, it’s likely overvaluing a player who is firmly in a committee and lacks receiving upside.
De’Von Achane (Miami Dolphins): I will die on the hill that Achane is not a featured running back, who is getting by on his explosiveness, but whose body will not withstand the rigors of being an NFL back. Achane’s rookie season in 2023 was incredibly efficient, averaging a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry, making him a breakout star. While his 2024 season saw a regression in rushing efficiency (4.5 YPC), his receiving numbers soared, providing a strong PPR floor. This boom-or-bust nature and receiving upside are driving his 2025 ADP into the early rounds. However, Achane’s slight frame and high-variance playstyle make him a significant injury risk; he missed a lot of time as a rookie. Furthermore, the Dolphins consistently deploy a committee approach and the team’s offensive line has been a perennial concern. While the explosion is undeniable, Achane has yet to demonstrate the ability to handle a true bell-cow workload consistently, and his value is heavily reliant on explosive plays, which can be unpredictable. Drafting him as a top-tier RB means betting against his injury history and the Dolphins’ usage patterns.
Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Irving made a surprising impact in his rookie 2024 season, particularly in the latter half, eventually taking over the lead back role for the Buccaneers and showcasing impressive yards-after-contact ability. His strong finish and potential as a lead back in a run-heavy scheme are pushing his 2025 ADP higher into the RB1 range. However, it’s crucial to exercise caution. While his efficiency was excellent, rookie running backs often experience a “sophomore slump” as defenses adapt. More importantly, the Buccaneers still have depth at the running back position, and I’d be hard pressed to believe Irving has the body to withstand a featured workload for any significant length of time. The team’s commitment to Irving as a true workhorse remains to be seen, and there’s a real possibility of a shared backfield, especially on passing downs. He carries a significant risk of not returning ideal value at his current ADP.
