Finding sleepers or breakout quarterbacks can help you win a championship. But even if you don’t, you can still win with steady or serviceable starters.
What is equally important is avoiding the busts, or at least the overrated, overvalued ones.
I’m not going to tell you to completely avoid projected QB1s. Pending injury, they will usually be serviceable starters. But the following are three “potential” QB2s who you should probably avoid at cost.
Baker Mayfield, QB/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one is an obvious avoid for me. Mayfield had a career year in 2023 and finished as a low-end QB1. He’s not being projected to finish that high again in 2024, but I still expect a drop in production with his offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, departing to be the Panthers coach. Plus, I expect standard regression after a career year. If you’re in a standard 1-QB league you shouldn’t be drafting backups anyway. But certainly don’t draft Mayfield with expectations he reproduces last year’s results.
Geno Smith, QB/Seattle Seahawks
Will the real Slim Geno please stand up? In 2022, Smith had a career year and finished as a mid-tier QB1. He followed up that performance with a mid-to-low QB2 campaign last season. Which of those two years better reflects the kind of output he’ll put forth in 2024? I’m willing to bet it’s the latter, for a guy who has basically been a backup or a poor starter throughout this career. Smith has plenty of offensive firepower around him in a trio of explosive receivers plus a dynamic run game. But with a new offensive coordinator at the helm and with Smith another year older and without much of a successful fantasy portfolio, I’m betting on him to remain a low-end QB2 at best and deem him not worth taking a gamble on that he returns to 2022 form.
Russell Wilson, QB/Pittsburgh Steelers
Russ is well past his “best if used by” date, but his arrow is pointing up after last season’s rebound. Following a lackluster first season with the Broncos in 2022, Wilson rebounded to have a high-end 2023, leaving some to wonder if the old man still had some juice left. Then Wilson gets cut and signed by a better, more stable Steelers team and suddenly we’re to assume he’s on track to be a weekly fantasy contributor? I’m not buying that. If you want to partake in his stock in superflex leagues, just don’t overpay. But with a more athletic Justin Fields breathing down his neck, I wouldn’t count on Wilson having a better 2024.
