The tight end position in fantasy football is often a barren wasteland, but the top few options can offer a significant weekly advantage. This scarcity, however, can also lead to widespread overvaluation of certain players, pushing their Average Draft Positions (ADPs) far beyond their realistic ceiling.
As we prepare for the 2025 fantasy football season, it’s crucial to identify which tight ends are being drafted with more optimism than their current situations or historical trends warrant. From aging veterans to injury-prone stars and unproven talents, overlooking these red flags can leave you with a roster hole.
Here are five tight ends whose current ADPs suggest you should think twice before clicking “draft.”
Brock Bowers (Las Vegas Raiders): Bowers had a historic rookie season in 2024, setting records for receptions and receiving yards by a rookie tight end, and finishing as a top-tier fantasy TE. This incredible performance has propelled his 2025 ADP to the top of the tight end rankings, often as the consensus TE1. While his talent is undeniable, expecting a repeat of such a dominant, record-setting season, particularly for a tight end in his second year, might be too optimistic. Historically, tight ends often see a slight dip after a hyper-efficient rookie year as defenses adjust. The Raiders’ quarterback situation with Geno Smith is an improvement, but not necessarily an elite one, and there’s still target competition from an upgraded receivers room. While Bowers will be a focal point, the sheer volume and touchdown efficiency that drove his rookie numbers may be difficult to sustain against increased defensive attention, potentially making his top-tier ADP a slight overvaluation.
Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs): Kelce has been the undisputed king of fantasy tight ends for nearly a decade, but Father Time is undefeated, even for legends. Heading into his age-36 season in 2025, Kelce showed clear signs of declining efficiency in 2024, with career lows in receiving yards and touchdowns since becoming a starter. While he still commanded red-zone targets, his yards after the catch and overall burst were not what they once were. The Chiefs have also invested in receiving weapons like Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, who will undoubtedly command targets. While Patrick Mahomes will still look his way, relying on Kelce to continue producing as a top-5 tight end at his current high ADP, especially in the early rounds, carries significant risk. The opportunity cost of drafting an aging tight end with declining efficiency, when younger, higher-upside options exist, makes him a potential overpay.
Jonnu Smith (Pittsburgh Steelers): The Smith trade to Pittsburgh already squashed Pat Freiermuth’s value, but it’s also going to hurt Smith’s. Smith enjoyed a surprising resurgence in 2024 with the Miami Dolphins, posting his best fantasy season in years and showing impressive yards-after-catch ability. This has inflated his 2025 ADP, especially given his reuniting with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. While Arthur Smith has a history of utilizing tight ends, Jonnu will now be competing with Freiermuth in Pittsburgh’s traditionally run-heavy offense. Relying on Smith to replicate his 2024 production, especially in a new, potentially lower-volume passing attack, and sharing targets with another capable tight end, makes his current ADP too high. He’s more likely to be a volatile streamer than a consistent fantasy contributor.
Tyler Warren (Indianapolis Colts): Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers ruined things for a lot of tight ends from a fantasy value perspective. Those two players’ rookie seasons the past two years have led owners to believe exorbitant production is starting to become the norm for the position. I don’t believe it will be. There is a world in which Warren plays a vital role for the Colts and receives a lot of targets. But I have a hard time believing he will put up numbers similar to his predecessors. For starters, the quarterback situation is far from ideal in Indianapolis. Anthony Richardson has been a colossal bust to date and Daniel Jones was never the model of consistency in New York. Warren remains a speculative pick, and any ADP that places him as a reliable weekly starter is likely too optimistic given the circumstances in which he’s landed.
Colston Loveland (Chicago Bears): You can basically copy and paste everything I just wrote about Warren and apply it to Loveland, too. Loveland was actually drafted before Warren by the Chicago Bears, and he became new head coach Ben Johnson’s first pick ever. That has to mean something, right? Especially since it was Johnson who so prominently utilized LaPorta in Detroit. The two major problems with Loveland, though, are that he missed full participation in offseason workouts due to his recovery from shoulder surgery. And he’s also competing for targets amongst a variety of players including D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, fellow rookie Luther Burden, and tight end running mate Cole Kmet. With such a crowded receiving room, Loveland’s target share is likely to be limited in his first year. While he has long-term dynasty appeal, his redraft ADP is too high, betting on immediate, high-volume production in an offense with many mouths to feed.
