The 2025 fantasy football season is just around the corner, and the time to prepare is now. To get ready for your draft, you must identify the players who will outperform their average draft position and avoid those who are poised for a disappointing year.
Every year, a handful of unheralded players emerge to become league-winners, while some highly-touted stars fail to live up to expectations.
I’ve done the research and crunched the numbers to bring you a definitive guide to the sleepers, busts, and breakouts that will define the 2025 season.
First, let’s define these three types of players we will be analyzing.
What is a sleeper? A fantasy football sleeper is a player who is being overlooked and has a good chance at outperforming his current Average Draft Position (ADP).
What is a bust? A fantasy football bust is a player who is being drafted too aggressively and who fails to meet expectations or perform to his ADP.
What is a breakout? A fantasy football breakout is a player who has a good chance at having a career-best season, or having a major fantasy impact above and beyond his normal production level.
2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers
Dak Prescott (QB – Dallas Cowboys): Despite an injury-shortened 2024 season, Prescott is a great value pick for 2025 drafts. With a full complement of weapons and a pass-centric offense — and a very uncertain run game — he has a strong chance to return to QB1 status. His average draft position has fallen, making him a perfect late-round target for a quarterback who could put up top-tier fantasy numbers.
Jordan Love (QB – Green Bay Packers): Love’s stats dipped in his second season as a starter. However, his overall performance improved, and he is projected to have an even better year in 2025. The Packers’ talented young receiving corps continues to develop, giving him a high ceiling. He’s currently being drafted as a low-end QB2, making him an excellent sleeper candidate with a path to being a top-12 fantasy quarterback.
C.J. Stroud (QB – Houston Texans): After a step back in his second year, Stroud is flying under the radar in 2025 drafts. The Texans offense remains loaded with talent, and Stroud has the skills to bounce back. He’s being overlooked in favor of other quarterbacks, presenting a great opportunity to get a potential top-10 fantasy QB at a discount.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB – New York Giants): While everyone is aboard the Cam Skattebo train, it’s pushing Tracy into major value territory. Tracy is atop the Giants’ depth chart and Skattebo is dealing with a hamstring injury, which tends to linger for players. Even if the rookie takes away carries from Tracy and surpasses him at some point this season, it won’t be until later and Tracy will already have returned value at his RB3 ADP.
Isiah Pacheco (RB – Kansas City Chiefs): Pacheco is being undervalued in drafts due to his recovery from injury last year, and with new bodies in the backfield. But he remains the lead back in a top-tier offense and doesn’t deserve to be shoved into RB3 territory, where he currently sits. Pacheco offers — minimally — high-end RB2 upside at a mid-round price.
Braelon Allen (RB – New York Jets): Allen is a player to watch who could be more than just a handcuff to Breece Hall. Reports from training camp suggest the Jets may be looking to use a “thunder and lightning” approach, with Allen taking on a larger role, particularly on early downs and around the goal line. If this usage shift happens, Allen could be a huge value pick, especially in non-PPR leagues.
DK Metcalf (WR – Pittsburgh Steelers): After a down year in 2024, Metcalf is poised for a bounce-back season with the Steelers. He will be the undisputed top receiving option in Pittsburgh’s offense — and maybe the only real option — which should lead to a high volume of targets. With a more stable quarterback situation, Metcalf has a clear path to returning to WR2 production.
Zay Flowers (WR – Baltimore Ravens): In his first two seasons in the league, Flowers has been a consistent WR3 for fantasy, finishing right in the fringe of WR2 territory last year. He has consistently commanded a high target share and has a knack for getting open. If he can build on his per-route metrics from last season, he could be a breakout star with WR2 upside.
Ricky Pearsall (WR – San Francisco 49ers): Pearsall has a chance to be the 49ers’ top outside receiver, a role that belonged to Brandon Aiyuk before his injury last season. With Aiyuk’s return date uncertain, Pearsall has been a star in training camp and could see a high volume of targets early in the season. If he can parlay that opportunity into consistent production, he could be a league winner.
Kyle Pitts (TE – Atlanta Falcons): Pitts has been a fantasy disappointment since his impressive rookie season, but there is reason for optimism in 2025. With a new quarterback, the Falcons are reportedly committed to getting him more involved. If Michael Penix Jr. can unlock Pitts’s elite physical talent, he could be a massive steal as a late-round tight end.
Isaiah Likely (TE – Baltimore Ravens): Likely probably would have made my breakout list if not for the foot injury he suffered this offseason. I still think he could have a high upside and offer good return on investment, especially if the injury turns off a lot of owners who were otherwise excited about him. He just might endure a slow start to the season, though.
Elijah Arroyo (TE – Seattle Seahawks): The path has been cleared for Arroyo to become the Seahawks’ starting tight end after the release of Noah Fant. The rookie from Miami was a mismatch nightmare in college and has been a camp standout, “catching everything from everybody.” With his second-round draft capital and a clear path to playing time, he has a chance to be a high-end TE2 in his first season.
2025 Fantasy Football Busts
Kyler Murray (QB – Arizona Cardinals): The fact that Murray has not thrown for more than 4,000 yards in a season throughout his career has me concerned. He finally played a full season last year after failing to log one of those in the three prior years. Murray needs his rushing statistics to be strong to even have a shot at QB1 production, and even then, it’s mostly as a backend QB1. Don’t draft him at his ceiling. There are other better values you can take a shot at who can outperform their ADPs.
Jared Goff (QB – Detroit Lions): It’s not inconceivable that new offensive coordinator John Morton gives Goff similar concepts to what Ben Johnson did for three years in Detroit. And that is the only way Goff can salvage any kind of fantasy success. Because before Johnson came along, Goff just wasn’t a good NFL quarterback — hence the reason he ended up in Detroit to begin with. I think between Johnson’s departure and center Frank Ragnow’s retirement, Goff — and the Lions offense in general — is headed for trouble.
Justin Fields (QB – New York Jets): Fields is only on the bust list because so many fantasy analysts are hyping his “high floor” due to his rushing ability. Some have him ranked as high as QB8. That’s called buying at a player’s ceiling. No thanks. While his rushing ability does provide a high floor, his passing development is still a major question mark, and anyone who drafts him as their starter could be scouring the waiver wire pretty quickly.
Ashton Jeanty (RB – Las Vegas Raiders): I like Jeanty, a lot. But, apparently not as much as others. Many are already anointing him a Top 5 fantasy back, and I’m just not ready to make that leap yet. The Raiders’ offensive line is a question mark, and Jeanty will be sharing touches with other backs like Raheem Mostert. While he has upside, the combination of his inexperience, uncertain workload, and a potentially poor offensive line makes him a risky selection in the middle of Round 1.
Aaron Jones (RB – Minnesota Vikings): Jones had a fine 2024 season as a Top 15 fantasy back, but his age and a nagging injury history are cause for concern. The Vikings have made it clear they want to limit his touches and share the workload with Jordan Mason. With a reduced role, Jones’s fantasy production could decline, making him a potential bust at his current ADP.
David Montgomery (RB – Detroit Lions): Gone is Ben Johnson, and with him I believe is the evenly split workload with the running backs. Montgomery has proven to be an effective early-down and goal-line back, but his role could be at risk. With Jahmyr Gibbs in the mix and just aching for the kind of workload his skill set desires, Montgomery’s fantasy value is too reliant on a high touchdown rate, a stat that is prone to regression.
Puka Nacua (WR – Los Angeles Rams): It’s just my opinion, but I think Nacua is one of the most overrated fantasy receivers since Cooper Kupp. The irony of what team they’ve both played for shouldn’t go unnoticed. Nacua had an incredible rookie season and is capable of posting huge spike weeks. But coming off his injury last year combined with the erratic nature of his rookie season success (nine WR1 finishes and seven WR3 or lower finishes) scares me off his Round 1 ADP.
Ladd McConkey (WR – Los Angeles Chargers): McConkey is a slight, shifty slot receiver who has carved out a nice, niche role. Good for him. But he’s not an alpha. And between the extra receivers the team added this offseason and the increased focus on the ground game, McConkey is being way over-drafted at that WR1/WR2 plateau. While he’s a talented route runner, he’s being drafted at his absolute fantasy ceiling, and it’s unlikely he’ll be able to sustain a WR1 season.
Tee Higgins (WR – Cincinnati Bengals): Higgins has been a consistent fantasy producer when healthy, but that’s a big “if.” He’s been sidelined by injuries in four of his last five seasons, and his upside is capped playing alongside Ja’Marr Chase. His boom-or-bust nature makes him a risky pick in the early rounds, as he could easily miss significant time or have a down year while playing second-fiddle to Chase.
Brock Bowers (TE – Las Vegas Raiders): I love Bowers and I think he’ll continue to be a force at tight end every week. But owners are drafting him nearly as high as they’ve drafted Travis Kelce in the past and I just don’t think his rookie season records are sustainable year over year. He’s being drafted as the TE1 early in Round 2, which leaves little room for him to be a value.
Sam LaPorta (TE – Detroit Lions): After a historic rookie season and a solid follow-up, LaPorta is being drafted as a top-3 or 4 tight end, but his production could regress. The Lions’ new offensive coordinator may utilize the team’s other weapons more, and the return of a healthy David Montgomery could cut into LaPorta’s red-zone targets. While he’s a talented player, he’s being drafted at his peak, leaving no margin for error.
Tucker Kraft (TE – Green Bay Packers): Kraft had a breakout sophomore season, but his production may have been inflated by the Packers’ lack of a true WR1. The team has since invested in two more rookie receivers, to go with their abundance of other receivers, which could lead to a lower target share for Kraft. His fantasy value is now more dependent on touchdown production, which is volatile and can be difficult to predict.
2025 Fantasy Football Breakouts
Trevor Lawrence (QB – Jacksonville Jaguars): Lawrence is a prime breakout candidate who could finally deliver on his immense talent in 2025. With a new head coach and a new system, the Jaguars offense is expected to be more dynamic and pass-heavy. Lawrence has been an uninspiring QB2 for a few years, but with a full complement of weapons and a more favorable scheme, he could finally make the leap into the top-12.
Drake Maye (QB – New England Patriots): After a solid rookie season, Maye is primed for a breakout year in 2025. He’ll be playing under a new regime with a new offensive coordinator and is poised to take a significant step forward. His impressive rushing ability provides a high fantasy floor, and a more aggressive passing attack could help him unlock his full potential.
Bryce Young (QB – Carolina Panthers): Young is a great breakout candidate due to his improved supporting cast and the fact that he’s being drafted as a low-end QB2. The Panthers have invested heavily in upgrading their receiving corps and offensive line. If he can build on the flashes he showed at the end of last season, he has a path to becoming a fantasy-relevant quarterback in 2025.
D’Andre Swift (RB – Chicago Bears): Swift is being undervalued in drafts after a solid but unspectacular 2024 season. He’s the clear-cut lead back in a new offense with an upgraded offensive line. With Ben Johnson, who has a history of utilizing his running backs, now calling plays in Chicago, Swift is poised for a big year.
Jordan Mason (RB – Minnesota Vikings): Mason is an excellent breakout candidate because he has the talent and opportunity to seize a major role in the Vikings’ backfield. He has been a standout in training camp and is expected to share a significant workload with Aaron Jones. If Mason can capitalize on this increased role, he could provide excellent RB2 production at a low cost. And if Jones misses time… look out.
TreVeyon Henderson (RB – New England Patriots): The rookie running back is becoming a hot name in fantasy circles and is a perfect target for a breakout. Henderson has the collegiate production and the physical tools to become a factor in the Patriots’ offense. He has the potential to seize meaningful touches, or even the lead role, and is a great value pick at his current ADP.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – Arizona Cardinals): After an inconsistent rookie season, Harrison is a prime candidate for a year-two breakout. The Cardinals’ offense has remained relatively unchanged, so Harrison will continue to be the primary X receiver. If he can improve his catch rate and overall efficiency, he has the potential to become one of the league’s top receivers.
Calvin Ridley (WR – Tennessee Titans): Ridley is a perfect bounce-back candidate after a disappointing season in 2024. He is the clear No. 1 wide receiver in a new offense and should benefit from better quarterback play. Ridley could easily return WR2 numbers at a WR3 price if he can recapture the big-play ability he’s shown throughout his career.
Rome Odunze (WR – Chicago Bears): Odunze is a classic breakout candidate in his second season. He had an underwhelming rookie year, but he was playing in a dysfunctional offense. With the addition of a new offensive coordinator and a clear path to becoming the go-to option, he has a chance to take a major step forward and become a consistent fantasy starter.
Tyler Warren (TE – Indianapolis Colts): The rookie tight end has a chance to be a game-changer in his first season. He has been a standout in training camp and has a versatile skill set that makes him a mismatch in the passing game. Warren could be an immediate and significant contributor.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – Buffalo Bills): Fantasy owners are overlooking Kincaid in drafts after an injury-plagued sophomore season. He showed flashes of his potential in his rookie year and has a path to becoming a primary target in a high-powered Bills offense. If he can stay healthy and his role expands, he could easily deliver TE1 numbers.
Theo Johnson (TE – New York Giants): Johnson, a tight end with a high ceiling, is a perfect breakout candidate in 2025. In a Giants passing game with little else outside Malik Nabers — who could battle lingering injuries all season, for what it’s worth — he has a shot at a meaningful fantasy role. Johnson could provide a much-needed middle of the field target for the Giants, and he has a chance to be a solid fantasy tight end by the end of the season.
