As fantasy football draft season heats up, Average Draft Position (ADP) is a critical tool for understanding player value. However, not all ADPs are created equal, and sometimes the hype can lead to players being significantly overvalued.
When it comes to the quarterback position, drafting a signal-caller whose ADP far outstrips their realistic ceiling can be a costly mistake. This year, several quarterbacks are generating buzz that might push their draft cost higher than their actual fantasy upside justifies.
Let’s assess five quarterbacks whose current 2025 ADPs could suggest they are traps, helping you identify who to avoid at cost and why.
Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders): I get the allure of Daniels. Rushing quarterbacks are usually cheat codes in fantasy football. Daniels certainly flashed elite fantasy potential in his rookie season, particularly with his incredible rushing upside, which propelled him to a Top 5 QB finish in fantasy points per game. This dual-threat ability is a massive help in fantasy football, and it’s understandably driving his 2025 ADP higher. However, banking on a repeat of that level of efficiency, especially in a still-developing Commanders offense, might be too optimistic. While the Commanders added talent, there’s always a risk of a “sophomore slump” as defenses get more film on him. His passing accuracy, particularly on highly accurate throws, wasn’t always top-tier, and while his rushing gives him a high floor, a reliance on that can also expose him to more hits and potential injuries. If his ADP places him among the elite, proven QB1s, the risk of regression in either his rushing volume or passing efficiency could make him overvalued.
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Mayfield had a surprising resurgence in 2024, finishing as a high-end fantasy QB. This career year is largely responsible for his inflated 2025 ADP. However, there are several red flags. His touchdown rate in 2024 was exceptionally high (7.2%), which is historically unsustainable and a strong indicator of regression. While he showed increased willingness to scramble, his prior career rushing output suggests his 2024 rushing stats might also be an outlier. The Buccaneers also have a new offensive coordinator, Josh Grizzard, whose philosophy might differ from Liam Coen, who allowed Mayfield to thrive in a quick-release, efficient passing game. Relying on Mayfield to repeat career-best numbers across the board, especially after years of inconsistent fantasy production, is a risky proposition at a high ADP.
Bo Nix (Denver Broncos): Nix’s rookie campaign saw him finish as a surprising QB1 in fantasy points per game, making him a popular target for a breakout in 2025. While his rushing ability provides a solid floor, and he demonstrated strong composure, his fantasy production was somewhat inflated by a high touchdown rate. Like Mayfield, a regression in touchdown efficiency is a strong possibility, and few quarterbacks maintain such efficiency into their second year. The Broncos’ offense, despite being led by Sean Payton, is still a work in progress and lacks a truly elite arsenal of weapons outside of Courtland Sutton. While he has upside, the potential for a “sophomore slump” as defenses adjust to his tendencies, combined with a likely regression in touchdown numbers, makes his current ADP seem a bit too ambitious for a player who hasn’t proven consistent elite passing volume in the NFL.
Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals): Murray is a tantalizing fantasy option due to his elite rushing upside when healthy, and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. was supposed to supercharge his passing game. However, Murray’s 2025 ADP feels too high given his persistent injury concerns. He’s been limited to 33 out of 51 possible games between 2021 and 2023, highlighted by a torn ACL. While he returned in 2024, he still had a high-variance season, showing flashes but also finishing outside the top 20 fantasy QBs in multiple weeks. He hasn’t eclipsed 4,000 passing yards in a season, nor 26 passing touchdowns more than once, which caps his ceiling if his rushing is curtailed or he misses time. Until he proves he can stay healthy for a full season and consistently translate his talent into elite passing production alongside his rushing, drafting him as a bona fide QB1 carries significant injury and consistency risks at his current ADP.
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions): It is inconceivable to me that Goff is going higher by many this offseason — sans offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and center Frank Ragnow — than he was last offseason. His fantasy viability stems primarily from his passing volume and efficiency within Johnson’s favorable system, but that is likely to change this year. His ADP might be too high because he offers almost no rushing upside, which inherently limits his fantasy ceiling compared to dual-threat quarterbacks being drafted around him. If the Lions’ offense experiences any hiccups, or if opponents are more successful at limiting their red-zone efficiency, Goff’s fantasy production could take a noticeable hit. He’s a good “real-life” quarterback, but his fantasy output relies heavily on touchdowns and passing yardage. At a higher ADP, you’re paying for what was a safe floor last year, but sacrificing the week-winning upside that mobile quarterbacks possess, making him potentially overvalued relative to his positional peers.
