The thrill of fantasy football often comes from identifying breakout stars, but savvy owners also understand the importance of pinpointing potential regression candidates.
A phenomenal season can sometimes be an outlier, driven by unsustainable touchdown rates, exceptional health luck, or an offense that simply peaked. As we look ahead to the 2025 fantasy football season, it’s time to examine which quarterbacks, after their stellar 2024 campaigns, might not live up to their heightened expectations.
Here are five quarterbacks who are primed for regression in 2025.
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals): Burrow’s 2024 season was nothing short of spectacular, highlighted by an NFL-high 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdowns. While his talent is undeniable, history suggests that sustaining such an elite touchdown rate is incredibly difficult. Only a small supply of quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era have thrown for 40+ touchdowns before 2024, and almost all of them experienced a decline in fantasy points the following year. While the Bengals’ offense is potent, a natural correction in touchdown efficiency is a strong possibility. Furthermore, Burrow battled lingering injuries in 2024, and while he played through them, the cumulative effect of hits over a high-volume season could subtly impact his play or lead to missed time, both of which would hinder fantasy production in 2025.
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Mayfield enjoyed a career-best fantasy season in 2024, setting personal highs in passing yards (4,500) and an impressive 41 touchdown passes. His touchdown rate of 7.2% was a substantial jump from his career average of 5.0%. This elevated touchdown rate is a red flag for regression. While he clearly found a strong connection with his receivers and benefited from the Buccaneers’ offensive scheme, maintaining such an efficient scoring pace is statistically unlikely. Regression to his career averages, or even a slight dip, in touchdown passes alone would significantly impact his fantasy value. Additionally, the team’s offensive philosophy and personnel could see changes, which might not be as conducive to Mayfield’s top-tier fantasy output.
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions): Goff had a surprisingly strong 2024 campaign, throwing for 4,629 yards and 37 touchdowns. The Lions’ offense as a whole was remarkably efficient, ranking among the league leaders in total points and red zone scoring. Goff’s touchdown rate of 6.9% in 2024 was notably higher than his 5.0% in 2023. While the Lions boast an excellent offensive line and playmakers, a slight normalization of their overall offensive efficiency, particularly in the red zone, could lead to fewer scoring opportunities for Goff. His fantasy success is heavily tied to the overall success of the Lions’ offense, and any slight dip in that collective efficiency could directly impact his production in 2025. The fact that the team lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and center Frank Ragnow is a major red flag.
Sam Darnold (Seattle Seahawks): Darnold’s move to the Seattle Seahawks for 2025 introduces significant uncertainty and potential for regression. Darnold’s career has been marked by inconsistency, and a one-year breakout, especially if it was buoyed by an unsustainable touchdown rate or high efficiency in a specific scheme, is often followed by a return to his previous performance levels. The Seahawks’ offensive system and available weapons do not perfectly align with what allowed him to succeed in 2024 with the Vikings. Furthermore, competition for the starting role or the inherent challenges of learning a new playbook and building rapport with new teammates could hinder his fantasy output.
Bo Nix (Denver Broncos): As a rookie in 2024, Nix had a solid fantasy season, primarily driven by his 29 passing touchdowns and 430 rushing yards with 4 scores on the ground. While a promising debut, rookie quarterbacks often experience a “sophomore slump” as defenses gain a full season of film to analyze and exploit weaknesses. His reliance on rushing yardage for fantasy points is also a factor, as maintaining high rushing totals as a quarterback can be physically demanding and often sees a natural regression. Opposing defenses will undoubtedly focus on containing his rushing lanes, forcing him to win more consistently from the pocket. Even a slight dip in rushing volume or a more conservative play-calling approach in Year 2 could lead to a noticeable drop in his overall fantasy production.
