The running back position in fantasy football is notoriously volatile. One year’s league-winner can quickly become the next year’s headache, and understanding the factors that lead to a decline in production is crucial for savvy fantasy owners.
After a thrilling 2024 season, several running backs emerged as top-tier fantasy assets. However, as we prepare for 2025, it’s essential to identify who might be due for a “regression to the mean.” Whether it’s unsustainable touchdown rates, a heavy workload, aging concerns, or a changing team landscape, the signs of a potential drop-off are often there if you know where to look.
Let’s dive into seven running backs who could disappoint relative to their 2024 success.
Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens): Henry defied age and expectations with a phenomenal 2024 season, finishing as a top-5 fantasy running back and showing he still has “it” with the Baltimore Ravens. However, the clock is ticking for the legendary rusher. Heading into 2025, Henry will be 31 years old, an age where running backs with his extensive career workload historically see a sharp decline in both efficiency and durability. While the Ravens’ run-heavy scheme and elite offensive line are ideal, the team also understands the importance of managing their star asset. Reports suggest the Ravens will be more cautious with his workload. A reduction in carries, even a slight dip in his powerful YPC, or an increased susceptibility to nagging injuries that limit his availability, could lead to a significant regression from his 2024 heights.
Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles): Barkley’s debut season with the Philadelphia Eagles was a resounding success, culminating in over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns. However, there are a few factors that could lead to regression. Firstly, the sheer volume of touches was the heaviest of his career, and given his past injury history, such a workload increases the risk of breakdown. The Eagles are likely to be more cautious with him in 2025 to preserve him for a playoff push. Secondly, while he scored 13 rushing touchdowns, his success rate on goal-line carries was lower than his career average, suggesting he might have been a bit “unlucky” on some short-yardage attempts that still resulted in scores. Regression to the mean in touchdown efficiency, coupled with a potential slight decrease in workload, could bring his overall fantasy production down from his elite 2024 status.
James Cook (Buffalo Bills): I am not a fan of Cook’s. I think his 2024 breakout was an aberration as it was largely fueled by an unsustainably high number of touchdowns. He tied for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns, a stark contrast to his combined four rushing scores in his first two NFL seasons. While he achieved his second consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season, his overall touch volume was on the lower side for a top-tier fantasy back. The significant leap in his touchdown rate suggests a large amount of positive variance, and it’s highly unlikely he can replicate that scoring pace in 2025. Unless his overall volume significantly increases, a natural regression in his touchdown efficiency would severely impact his fantasy output, making him a prime candidate for a statistical decline.
Josh Jacobs (Green Bay Packers): Jacobs seemingly revitalized his career with a strong 2024 season in Green Bay, logging over 1,300 rushing yards and a career-high 15 rushing touchdowns. This rebound year cemented his status as a key piece of the Packers’ offense. However, regression might be on the horizon for 2025. Firstly, 15 rushing touchdowns are a lofty total for any running back, and maintaining that level of scoring efficiency is challenging, especially if the Packers’ overall offensive red zone efficiency normalizes. Secondly, while he remained a bell-cow back, the heavy workload from 2024 could lead to increased wear and tear. The Packers also have other talented backs who could see an expanded role, potentially eating into Jacobs’ overall touches and limiting his upside, even if he remains productive.
De’Von Achane (Miami Dolphins): Like with Cook, I’m flat-out not enamored with Achane. I think he’s vastly overrated which makes him a hands-off player for me to begin with. Then I factor in regression and he’s firmly in the Do Not Draft category for me. Achane burst onto the scene in 2024. His explosive rushing and significant receiving production (over 900 rushing yards, nearly 600 receiving yards, and 12 total touchdowns) made him a top-10 fantasy RB. However, there are valid concerns about his 2025 outlook. Despite playing in all 17 games, his injury history in his rookie year and his slight frame raise questions about his long-term durability if he continues to receive a heavy workload. While his efficiency was still impressive, his yards per touch and yards per rush saw a predictable dip from his rookie season’s unsustainable rates. If the Dolphins opt to manage his touches more carefully to keep him healthy, or if his overall efficiency dips further, his immense per-game upside might not translate into the same high-end season-long fantasy production.
Chase Brown (Cincinnati Bengals): I’m a little torn on Brown if I’m honest. Like Cook and Achane before him, Brown seems to be a lesser talented player severely elevated by a good offense. He emerged as a pleasant surprise in 2024, taking over as the Cincinnati Bengals’ lead back from Week 4 onwards and finishing as a top-10 PPR RB. His strong workload, particularly in the passing game with 54 receptions and four receiving touchdowns, was a significant factor in his fantasy success. However, several elements could lead to regression in 2025. The Bengals’ offense is inherently pass-heavy, and while Brown thrived, the team’s run-blocking grade was low. Any decrease in his target share or overall carries could significantly impact his fantasy value.
Chuba Hubbard (Carolina Panthers): Hubbard had a career-best season in 2024 — downright shocking, really — rushing for nearly 1,200 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns while also contributing in the passing game. He received a significant workload, operating as the clear lead back in a Panthers offense that, despite its struggles, showed some flashes of improvement late in the year. However, his strong 2024 season was achieved on an offense that was still generally below average. While he reportedly appreciated continuity under Dave Canales, the Panthers’ overall offensive talent level remains a concern, and their inability to consistently move the ball could limit Hubbard’s scoring opportunities. Additionally, his significant workload and a late-season injury raise durability questions, and the team might look to diversify their backfield more in 2025.
