The tight end position in fantasy football is often a barren wasteland, making it incredibly tempting to chase last year’s top performers.
However, the nature of the position often means that standout seasons are fueled by unsustainable factors like outlier touchdown rates or temporary spikes in target share.
As we look back at the 2024 fantasy football season and ahead to 2025, it’s critical to analyze which tight ends, despite their strong showings, are flashing red flags for potential regression.
Let’s delve into five tight ends whose 2025 outlook might not live up to their 2024 hype.
Brock Bowers (Las Vegas Raiders): Expectations for Bowers are sky-high after a truly historic rookie campaign with the Las Vegas Raiders. In 2024, Bowers shattered rookie tight end records with an astonishing 112 receptions for 1,194 yards and 5 touchdowns, leading all tight ends in PPR. He quickly established himself as a dominant force, showcasing elite receiving talent and becoming the focal point of the Raiders’ passing game. However, despite this incredible debut, there are reasons to temper expectations for a repeat performance in 2025. While his talent is undeniable, sustaining such record-breaking numbers is a monumental task, even for a “generational” talent. The Raiders’ offense is also undergoing changes, with a new coaching staff and the addition of quarterback Geno Smith. While Smith is an upgrade from the carousel of QBs Bowers dealt with in 2024, a new scheme could alter target distribution. Furthermore, the Raiders have added more weapons, including a first-round running back in Ashton Jeanty, which could slightly dilute Bowers’ target share, even if he remains the primary receiving option. His current ADP as the consensus TE1 also means fantasy owners will be paying a premium, making him a higher-risk pick if he doesn’t fully replicate his 2024 heroics.
Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals): McBride had a breakout 2024 season, establishing himself as a key target in the Cardinals’ offense. However, his strong performance might have been partly due to the absence or limited effectiveness of other receiving options. As the Cardinals continue to improve their receiving corps, McBride might face increased competition for targets, potentially leading to a decrease in his overall volume. It’s clear the team wants its top receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr., to take a big step in his sophomore season. While McBride is a talented player, relying on him to replicate his 2024 target share in a potentially more crowded passing game is risky.
Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens): Andrews remains a desirable tight end, but his 2024 touchdown rate was exceptionally high. Not since 2019 has Andrews topped double-digit touchdowns. And in the four seasons prior to last year, he averaged just under 7 TDs per season. While he’s Lamar Jackson’s favorite red-zone target, maintaining last year’s scoring pace is difficult, especially with the emergence of Isaiah Likely, who proved to be a capable receiving threat. If Likely’s role expands, it could eat into Andrews’ target share, particularly in the red zone. Even a slight dip in his touchdown efficiency could significantly impact his overall fantasy production.
Jonnu Smith (Miami Dolphins): I’ve always believed Smith to be an overhyped, underproducing tight end. And for most of his career, he was. But last year, he received an exceptionally high amount of targets and it showed up in the final stat line. Smith had a surprisingly productive 2024, finding the end zone more frequently than in previous seasons. However, his touchdown total was inflated by specific matchups and injuries to other Dolphins’ pass-catchers. With a crowded and talented receiving corps in Miami, it’s unlikely he’ll continue to be a primary red-zone target. Regression to his career averages in touchdown production is highly probable, making him a risky fantasy option in 2025. Even if he gets traded this offseason, it’s buyer beware on this one-hit wonder.
Zach Ertz (Washington Commanders): Ertz defied expectations (except mine) with a solid 2024 season, but he’s nearing the end of his career. Tight ends typically experience a decline in production as they age, and Ertz is no exception. While he might still be a reliable target, expecting him to replicate his 2024 numbers, especially in terms of touchdown production, is overly optimistic. The emergence of younger receiving options in Washington could also lead to a decrease in his target share, further limiting his fantasy upside.
