Which quarterbacks have lost the most fantasy football value in 2026?
Several quarterbacks enter the 2026 fantasy football season with lower expectations than they carried a year ago. Injuries, supporting-cast concerns, coaching changes, declining rushing production, and rising draft costs have all contributed to falling fantasy value. While many of these quarterbacks still possess league-winning upside, fantasy owners should carefully weigh the risks before paying premium prices on draft day.
Why Quarterback Value Is Shifting in 2026
Quarterback scoring remains deep across fantasy football, making it more important than ever to identify which passers are gaining value and which are losing it. A quarterback’s stock can fall for many reasons, including reduced rushing production, offensive uncertainty, tougher competition, or an inflated Average Draft Position (ADP).
The following quarterbacks have seen their fantasy outlook become more complicated heading into 2026.
Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)
Daniels remains one of the most talented young quarterbacks in fantasy football, but his value isn’t quite as bulletproof as it was entering last season.
Why His Stock Has Fallen
- Missed time due to injuries during the 2025 season.
- Washington’s supporting cast continues to receive criticism compared to other top offenses.
- The Commanders did not make a major splash to significantly upgrade the offense this offseason.
- Expectations remain extremely high after his breakout rookie campaign, making it difficult to exceed his draft cost.
What it will take to get back on track: Daniels needs better health and more consistent playmaking from the players around him.
Fantasy Recommendation: Still draft him as a QB1, but fantasy owners should be cautious about paying a premium based solely on his rookie-season ceiling.
Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta Falcons)
Penix enters 2026 with plenty of intrigue, but uncertainty continues to surround his fantasy outlook.
Why His Stock Has Fallen
- Limited NFL sample size compared to other established fantasy starters.
- Questions remain about weekly consistency.
- Atlanta’s offense still projects as balanced rather than pass-heavy.
- The team brought in veteran Tua Tagovailoa for competition.
What it will take to get back on track: Penix must establish himself as a reliable every-week fantasy starter and show he can support multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers.
Fantasy Recommendation: Target him as an upside QB2 rather than relying on him as your lone starter.
J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings)
McCarthy entered the league with plenty of long-term upside, but his fantasy stock has taken a significant hit heading into 2026.
Why His Stock Has Fallen
- His 2025 season was marked by erratic and inconsistent play.
- Turnovers and poor decision-making led to major weekly volatility.
- Injuries limited both his development and availability.
- Minnesota’s front office clearly signaled concern by bringing in Kyler Murray to compete for the starting job.
- The Vikings appear focused on winning now rather than waiting for McCarthy’s development timeline.
- There is a legitimate chance he begins the season as a backup if he loses the quarterback competition.
What it will take to get back on track: McCarthy must show improved consistency, protect the football, and convincingly beat out Murray during training camp and the preseason. The Vikings need to see that he can help them compete immediately rather than simply develop for the future.
Fantasy Recommendation: Avoid relying on McCarthy as your starting quarterback in single-QB leagues. Fantasy owners should view him as a late-round upside stash until he secures the starting job and proves he can deliver consistent fantasy production.
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
Hurts remains a fantasy star, but cracks have started to appear in what was once considered a nearly flawless fantasy profile.
Why His Stock Has Fallen
- Rushing production declined significantly in 2025.
- His fantasy points per game dropped from previous elite levels.
- Offensive changes create uncertainty entering 2026.
- Philadelphia’s passing-game dynamics have faced increased scrutiny this offseason.
What it will take to get back on track: Hurts needs a rebound in rushing efficiency and touchdown production.
Fantasy Recommendation: Still a top-tier fantasy quarterback, but fantasy owners should not automatically rank him at the top of the position.
Sam Darnold (Seattle Seahawks)
Darnold’s real-life success has outpaced his fantasy production.
Why His Stock Has Fallen
- Seattle’s offense has leaned heavily on the running game.
- Limited rushing upside lowers his fantasy ceiling.
- New offensive coordinator creates uncertainty.
- Many fantasy owners view him as a lower QB2 than a true difference-maker.
What it will take to get back on track: Increased passing volume could elevate Darnold into spot starter territory, but he’ll never be a consistent weekly starter.
Fantasy Recommendation: Strong value in Superflex leagues, but better suited as a matchup-based starter in standard formats.
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
Few names carry more prestige than Mahomes, but fantasy football is about production, not reputation.
Why His Stock Has Fallen
- Fantasy finishes have trended downward compared to his peak seasons.
- Passing touchdown totals have not matched earlier career highs.
- Injury concerns have entered the conversation.
- Several dual-threat quarterbacks now offer higher fantasy ceilings.
What it will take to get back on track: A return to elite touchdown production would immediately restore his fantasy dominance.
Fantasy Recommendation: Draft him confidently, but fantasy owners should recognize that his name value may exceed his fantasy advantage.
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Mayfield has exceeded expectations in recent years, but maintaining that level of production becomes increasingly difficult.
Why His Stock Has Fallen
- Career-best production is difficult to repeat.
- Regression concerns naturally follow breakout seasons.
- Lost his primary and big-play weapon in Mike Evans this offseason.
- Draft cost has fallen and expectations with it.
What it will take to get back on track: Another efficient season with strong touchdown production would silence concerns.
Fantasy Recommendation: A solid value if he slips in drafts, but fantasy owners should avoid paying for a repeat of his absolute ceiling.
Final Thoughts
Identifying quarterbacks whose stock has fallen is one of the best ways for fantasy owners to find value during draft season. Not every declining player is a bust, and not every rising player is a bargain.
Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy, Jalen Hurts, Sam Darnold, Patrick Mahomes, and Baker Mayfield all enter 2026 with more questions than they had a year ago. The key is understanding whether those concerns are temporary speed bumps or signs of a larger decline.
Smart fantasy owners will weigh both the risk and reward before investing in these quarterbacks on draft day.
