In the dynamic world of fantasy football, last year’s heroes aren’t always guaranteed to repeat their success. Wide receiver production, in particular, can be heavily influenced by factors like unsustainable touchdown rates, changes in quarterback play, shifts in offensive schemes, or the natural ebb and flow of a player’s career arc.
As we dissect the impressive 2024 season, it’s crucial for shrewd fantasy owners to identify which wideouts might be signaling a potential regression in 2025. Understanding these warning signs can help you avoid overpaying for past production and instead focus on players with more stable or ascending outlooks.
Let’s explore the wide receivers who could take a step back next season.
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars): Thomas had a fantastic rookie season in 2024 for the Jaguars, accumulating 87 receptions for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. While his raw talent is undeniable, rookie wide receivers who experience high touchdown totals often face a “sophomore slump” in that specific category. Ten touchdowns is an impressive mark for any receiver, let alone a first-year player. Defenses will now have a full season of film on him, allowing them to better scheme to limit his big plays and red zone opportunities. Additionally, while the Jaguars’ offense has Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, the overall efficiency of the unit could fluctuate. When you add the fact that the team drafted part-time electric wide receiver Travis Hunter who will command targets and touches, Thomas’ numbers are highly likely to regress.
Drake London (Atlanta Falcons): London finally had his breakout fantasy season in 2024, leading the Falcons with 100 receptions, 1,271 yards, and 9 touchdowns. This strong performance was undoubtedly aided by a more pass-heavy approach and improved quarterback play, particularly with Michael Penix stepping in late in the season. However, the Falcons’ offensive philosophy under Raheem Morris might still lean on the run game more than a true pass-happy offense, especially with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the backfield. While Penix showed a good rapport with London, his first year as a full-time starter introduces an element of uncertainty. There’s always a risk that a new quarterback could distribute targets differently, or that Penix’s efficiency might not match the late-season surge that boosted London’s numbers. Any shift in offensive philosophy or a slight dip in quarterback play could impact London’s target volume or red-zone opportunities.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks): Smith-Njigba had a very productive 2024 with 100 receptions for 1,130 yards and 6 touchdowns. While his volume was impressive, his efficiency, particularly his touchdown rate relative to his receptions, wasn’t exceptionally high. The primary concern for JSN’s regression lies with the quarterback situation in Seattle. Sam Darnold is the starter for 2025. While Darnold had a surprisingly effective 2024 with the Vikings, his career has been largely inconsistent. A change in quarterback, especially to one with a less proven track record of sustaining high-volume passing offenses, could negatively impact JSN’s target share and overall quality of targets. With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both gone, one might think it automatically means a better path to success for JSN. But I think the opposite will be true and defenses will give him a heavier dose of attention. Plus, Cooper Kupp was added to the mix to “mix” things up.
Jerry Jeudy (Cleveland Browns): Jeudy finally delivered a strong fantasy season in 2024 with the Cleveland Browns, putting up 90 catches for 1,229 yards and 4 touchdowns. This represented a significant step forward from his previous seasons. However, the Browns’ quarterback situation remains highly fluid for 2025. Deshaun Watson is likely out, leaving Kenny Pickett or Joe Flacco, or possibly a rookie to lead the offense. Inconsistent or lower-tier quarterback play can severely depress a receiver’s fantasy value, regardless of their talent. Jeudy’s production in 2024 might have been inflated by the Browns’ need to throw more due to other offensive struggles or specific game scripts. If the offense shifts to a more run-heavy approach or struggles with efficiency, Jeudy’s target volume and especially his touchdown opportunities could decline, leading to regression from his 2024 numbers.
Ladd McConkey (Los Angeles Chargers): McConkey emerged as a key weapon for the Los Angeles Chargers in 2024, securing 82 catches for 1,149 yards and 7 touchdowns in 16 games. His immediate impact was a testament to his talent. The Chargers are entering their second year under the leadership of Jim Harbaugh and I would expect the offense to take a step forward. However, I’m less convinced it’ll be McConkey taking that next step. The team brought in extra help at running back in Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton and will likely put extra emphasis on the run game, as is Harbaugh’s and offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s way. Second-round rookie Tre Harris will also command some attention and defenses will be more tuned in to game planning against McConkey.
Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos): Sutton enjoyed a productive 2024 season, recording 81 receptions for 1,081 yards and 8 touchdowns for the Denver Broncos. His touchdown efficiency, in particular, stood out, as he historically hasn’t been a high-volume scorer. While Bo Nix’s presence as a more stable quarterback helped, 8 touchdowns is a strong number for Sutton. The primary concern for regression stems from career inconsistency up to this point. The idea that he was a high volume player at 28 years of age doesn’t give me an overwhelming feeling of security that he can be a high-end WR2 again. The team added help to the running back room, drafted wide receiver Pat Bryant in the third round, and signed veteran tight end Evan Engram. Any extra help on offense raises the odds of regression for Sutton this season.
Jameson Williams (Detroit Lions): Williams finally had the breakout season many hoped for in 2024, catching 58 passes for 1,001 yards and 7 touchdowns for the Detroit Lions. His elite speed and big-play ability were on full display, leading to a high yards-per-reception average. However, despite his impressive yardage, his target share was relatively low for a receiver putting up WR2 numbers. This suggests his fantasy production was heavily reliant on explosive plays and efficient scoring. While the Lions’ offense is potent, the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson could alter the scheme and red zone play-calling. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the clear alpha in the target hierarchy, and any increase in his target share or that of other Lions’ pass-catchers (like Sam LaPorta or an emerging secondary option) could limit Williams’s opportunities. Relying on such high efficiency and big plays can be volatile year-to-year.
