How to Make Tough Week 1 Start/Sit Decisions
Week 1 start/sit decisions can be some of the most difficult choices fantasy owners face all season. Before we have meaningful game data, preseason assumptions, and offseason changes can make it difficult to determine which players deserve a spot in your starting lineup.
The best approach is to focus on matchup, expected workload, offensive environment, and player role rather than simply starting the biggest name. These factors can help break ties when two players appear close in value.
Here are some of the toughest Week 1 start/sit decisions at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end, along with the player we would start in each matchup.
Quarterback Start/Sit Decisions
Jordan Love vs. Kyler Murray
Start: Jordan Love, GB (@ MIN)
Kyler Murray offers plenty of upside because of his dual-threat ability, but Jordan Love provides a more reliable Week 1 profile.
Love enters the season with proven production in Matt LaFleur’s offense and a full complement of target depth. He’s got a favorable environment for passing production.
Murray’s rushing ability always gives him the potential for a big fantasy performance, but Love carries less Week 1 floor risk.
Caleb Williams vs. Jaxson Dart
Start: Caleb Williams, CHI (@ CAR)
Caleb Williams gets a favorable opportunity to bounce back against a re-tooling Carolina defense. Chicago enters a favorable road environment as a line favorite, which creates a strong setup for Williams and the Bears’ offense.
Jaxson Dart has plenty of intrigue, but his first game of his sophomore year comes against Dallas in a division rivalry. The combination of a young quarterback in a new offensive system and difficult divisional matchup creates significantly more volatility.
For fantasy owners deciding between the two, Williams is the safer Week 1 option.
Dak Prescott vs. Baker Mayfield
Start: Dak Prescott, DAL (@ NYG)
Dak Prescott gets the nod in another difficult quarterback decision. Prescott has historically performed well against NFC East opponents, and Dallas enters Sunday Night Football with a projected high-scoring offensive environment.
Baker Mayfield faces a much tougher road matchup against Cincinnati and its refreshed pass rush. While Mayfield remains capable of producing a strong fantasy outing, Prescott offers the better combination of matchup, offensive environment, and historical production.
Running Back Start/Sit Decisions
De’Von Achane vs. James Cook
Start: De’Von Achane, MIA (@ LV)
De’Von Achane is the preferred Week 1 start thanks to his explosive ability and receiving upside.
Achane’s combination of game-breaking speed and pass-catching volume gives him legitimate RB1 potential, particularly in Las Vegas’ fast indoor environment. His ability to create big plays both as a runner and receiver gives him multiple paths to a productive fantasy performance.
James Cook should still receive meaningful volume in Buffalo, but Josh Allen’s presence can limit Cook’s goal-line touchdown opportunities and the Texans have one of the top defenses in the league.
Omarion Hampton vs. Javonte Williams
Start: Omarion Hampton (vs. ARI)
Omarion Hampton has been all the rage this offseason and enters his second year with a ton of expectation. The Chargers are rolling out a new offense under creative OC Mike McDaniel and they play a Cardinals team that figures to be dreadful.
Javonte Williams enters Week 1 with an established role in a Dallas offense expected to be favored and potentially playing with a lead, so he should receive plenty of touches. But on the road in a divisional matchup doesn’t pack the same confidence as Hampton’s assignment does.
Derrick Henry vs. Ken Walker
Start: Derrick Henry, BAL (@ IND)
Derrick Henry remains one of the easiest running backs to trust near the goal line, and that makes him the preferred start over Ken Walker.
Henry’s dependable goal-line workload and dominant fourth-quarter role provide one of the highest touchdown floors on the Week 1 slate. His ability to turn a relatively modest workload into a multi-touchdown performance also gives him significant upside.
Ken Walker faces more uncertainty because of the potential distribution of touches and targets in Kansas City’s offense.
Wide Receiver Start/Sit Decisions
Luther Burden III vs. D.J. Moore
Start: Luther Burden III, CHI (@ CAR)
Luther Burden III gets the nod in a matchup that could allow his explosive playmaking ability to shine.
Burden brings dynamic run-after-catch ability in a Chicago offense capable of creating opportunities in space. Carolina presents a favorable matchup against a re-tooling secondary, giving Burden an intriguing opportunity in his first starter duty with the Bears.
D.J. Moore remains a talented receiver, but he faces a difficult matchup against Houston and increased target competition.
Burden is the upside player here.
DK Metcalf vs. Courtland Sutton
Start: DK Metcalf, PIT (vs. ATL)
DK Metcalf is the preferred start thanks to his combination of size, vertical ability, and red-zone potential. He’s Aaron Rodgers’ preferred and most comfortable target.
Metcalf is a dominant perimeter target capable of producing splash plays. His ability to win downfield and in scoring situations gives him multiple paths to a big fantasy outing.
Courtland Sutton has plenty of fantasy value, but the matchup against Kansas City’s stingy secondary on Monday Night Football makes him a tougher Week 1 start.
Terry McLaurin vs. Chris Godwin
Start: Terry McLaurin, WAS (@ PHI)
Terry McLaurin is the preferred option here because he’s the focal point of Washington’s passing game.
McLaurin’s projected target volume gives him a strong floor, while the matchup against Philadelphia could produce a high-scoring game environment. Volume is particularly valuable in Week 1, when offensive roles are not always easy to predict.
Chris Godwin remains a proven receiver, but Tampa Bay faces a difficult road matchup against Cincinnati in a potentially lower-volume passing environment.
Tight End Start/Sit Decisions
Isaiah Likely vs. Mark Andrews
Start: Isaiah Likely, NYG (vs. DAL)
It’s the old head vs. the understudy as Likely gets the chance to remove himself from Andrews’ shadow.
I like Likely in this decision because of the importance the Giants will place on the tight end position and the potential high-scoring matchup he’ll have on Sunday Night Football.
Andrews remains one of the team’s primary receiving threats near the goal line, and his efficiency gives him a strong fantasy ceiling whenever Baltimore’s offense reaches scoring range.
But I’m going with the younger player and the higher upside.
Dallas Goedert vs. Jake Ferguson
Start: Dallas Goedert, PHI (vs. WAS)
I like both these options here but Goedert gets the nod mostly due to target competition.
Ferguson, while an excellent red zone option, also has to contend for targets with elite receivers like CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. He could see increased targets in a high-scoring affair, but he faces more uncertainty.
Goedert, meanwhile, could see an uptick in targets after the departure of A.J. Brown this offseason leaves a void for the second option that is being jockeyed for by underwhelming options in Dontayvion Wicks and Makai Lemon.
Dalton Schultz vs. Michael Mayer
Start: Dalton Schultz, HOU (vs. BUF)
Dalton Schultz gets the edge in this matchup because of his ability to serve as a reliable safety valve in a high-volume passing offense.
The matchup against Buffalo gives Schultz an opportunity to accumulate short and intermediate receptions, which can be particularly valuable in PPR formats.
Michael Mayer faces more uncertainty in Las Vegas, where he must compete for targets in an offense that could produce fewer scoring opportunities.
What to Consider When Making Week 1 Start/Sit Decisions
The hardest Week 1 lineup decisions are often between players who have similar projected fantasy values. When you’re stuck between two options, consider these four factors:
1. Expected Volume: Players with predictable workloads generally provide a safer floor.
2. Matchup: Look beyond the opponent’s overall defensive ranking. Consider how the defense matches up with the player’s position and style.
3. Game Environment: Teams expected to score a lot of points create more opportunities for yards, receptions, and touchdowns.
4. Role: A player’s expected role can be more important than his name value. A receiver projected for heavy targets or a running back with goal-line duties can outperform a more talented player with a limited workload.
Week 1 is also the week when uncertainty is highest. Don’t overreact to offseason hype or preseason narratives. Look for the players whose roles and opportunities are easiest to project.
Final Thoughts on Week 1 Start/Sit Decisions
The best way to approach difficult Week 1 start/sit decisions is to identify the players with the strongest combination of opportunity, matchup, and offensive environment.
That does not always mean starting the biggest name. There are situations where role and matchup can outweigh reputation.
As the season progresses, actual game data will make these decisions easier. For Week 1, however, fantasy owners should prioritize predictable workloads, favorable scoring environments, and players with multiple paths to fantasy production.
