Midseason Fantasy Football Buy Low and Sell High Strategy
We’re officially at the halfway point of the NFL season, with fantasy playoffs lingering, which means it’s time to take a closer look at player values and identify potential trade opportunities.
By now, fantasy owners have a pretty good idea of what their rosters look like. Some players have exceeded expectations, others have disappointed, and a few have seen their fantasy value fluctuate because of injuries, changing workloads, or inconsistent production.
That’s where a good fantasy football buy low sell high strategy can make a difference.
The goal isn’t necessarily to trade away your best players or acquire every struggling player you can find. It’s about identifying players whose current trade value doesn’t accurately reflect their potential production over the second half of the season.
For buy-low candidates, look for players with favorable underlying trends, increased opportunities, or circumstances that could improve. For sell-high candidates, look for players whose current production might be difficult to sustain.
Here are eight players worth targeting or shopping around as we head into the second half of the season.
Fantasy Football Buy Low Candidates
These four players could offer some significant second-half value if you’re willing to take advantage of their current market price.
Caleb Williams (QB – Bears)
Buy Low
- Williams missed three games with a hamstring injury, dragging down his overall season statistics and potentially making him more affordable in trades.
- Since returning, he’s been red hot, completing 76 of 103 passes for 860 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
- His recent production suggests he’s capable of being a difference-maker at quarterback down the stretch.
- His overall fantasy numbers don’t tell the full story because of the games he missed.
Fantasy Recommendation: Williams is an excellent buy-low target for fantasy owners looking for quarterback help, particularly if his time away and season-long statistics have created a buying opportunity.
Derrick Henry (RB – Ravens)
Buy Low
- Henry has struggled over the last three weeks, averaging fewer than nine fantasy points per game.
- With Lamar Jackson out for the season, some Henry owners might be ready to move on from the veteran running back.
- There’s also a chance the Ravens move Henry at the trade deadline, potentially landing him with a contender and giving him a fresh opportunity.
- His difficult matchup against the Jaguars this week could further depress his trade value, creating an opportunity to buy before the deadline.
Fantasy Recommendation: Don’t let three disappointing weeks convince you Henry is finished; explore what it would take to acquire him before his situation potentially improves.
DeVonta Smith (WR – Eagles)
Buy Low
- Smith has missed time because of injury, limiting his overall production and making him a potentially inexpensive trade target.
- The Eagles have struggled, and the absence of Jalen Hurts creates additional uncertainty surrounding the offense.
- His current circumstances could make him available for considerably less than his preseason or established market value.
- While a return to peak production might be unrealistic, his talent and potential opportunity make the asking price worth exploring.
Fantasy Recommendation: Smith is a worthwhile buy-low target for fantasy owners needing receiver depth, especially if you can acquire him without giving up a dependable weekly starter.
Kyle Pitts (TE – Falcons)
Buy Low
- Pitts’ fantasy stock is about as low as it can get after an inconsistent first half of the season.
- Outside of a three-week stretch from Weeks 5-7, his production has been disappointing.
- His target volume has actually improved, going from just nine targets in his first four games to 23 over his last four.
- His latest performance against the Buccaneers was a major low point for him and the Falcons offense, potentially creating a buying opportunity with frustrated fantasy owners.
Fantasy Recommendation: Pitts is a high-upside buy-low option at a position where consistent production is difficult to find, and his recent increase in targets offers some reason for optimism.
Fantasy Football Sell High Candidates
These four players have generated plenty of fantasy value during the first half of the season, but their current production might not be sustainable. If another fantasy owner is willing to pay a premium, it could be time to cash in.
Brock Purdy (QB – 49ers)
Sell High
- Purdy has enjoyed a terrific season, but much of his fantasy production came during the first four weeks.
- His recent production has been considerably less impressive, and he hasn’t topped 18 fantasy points since Week 4.
- His season-long statistics might still make him look like an elite fantasy quarterback to other owners.
- There are also concerns about the long-term availability of Mike Evans, whose lingering injury issues add another potential complication to the passing game.
Fantasy Recommendation: Don’t give Purdy away, but if another fantasy owner is willing to pay a premium based on his overall season numbers, consider turning him into a more dependable weekly option or upgrading another position.
D’Andre Swift (RB – Bears)
Sell High
- Swift leads the NFL with 10 rushing touchdowns through the first half of the season.
- Touchdowns are notoriously difficult to predict, and maintaining that scoring pace over the second half seems unlikely.
- Kyle Monangai is expected to return at some point, which could take away some of Swift’s workload.
- His current production could make him look like a legitimate RB1, even if his underlying workload and long-term outlook suggest something closer to a fringe RB1/RB2.
Fantasy Recommendation: See if you can get legitimate RB1 trade value for Swift while his touchdown production has his stock near its peak.
Christian Watson (WR – Packers)
Sell High
- Watson and Matthew Golden are both currently producing at a top-seven receiver level, and it’s difficult to envision both maintaining that pace throughout the season.
- Watson’s injury history makes him a particularly risky player to hold at peak trade value.
- He went to the hospital during his most recent game, although he returned to the field in dramatic fashion, à la a skit from the 1990s Attitude Era of the WWF.
- His ability to make big plays keeps his fantasy ceiling high, but the combination of injury concerns and potential regression creates a significant risk.
Fantasy Recommendation: Watson is an ideal sell-high candidate, particularly if another fantasy owner is willing to overlook his injury history and pay for his current production.
Harold Fannin Jr. (TE – Browns)
Sell High
- Fannin is coming off a career performance, making this an ideal time to explore his trade value.
- His fantasy production has been inconsistent, with too many spike weeks to confidently rely on him as a weekly starter.
- His scoring profile is arguably more attractive in best ball formats, where fantasy owners automatically receive his best weekly performance.
- His current market value might allow you to acquire a steadier tight end while adding depth at another position.
Fantasy Recommendation: If you’re uncomfortable with Fannin’s week-to-week volatility, capitalize on his career performance and see if you can turn him into a more consistent option plus an additional depth piece.
Make Your Move Before the Fantasy Football Trade Deadline
The middle of the fantasy football season is an important time to evaluate your roster and identify opportunities to improve before the fantasy playoffs arrive.
The best buy-low candidates aren’t necessarily players who have struggled all season. They’re players whose current trade value might be lower than their expected production over the second half. Likewise, sell-high candidates aren’t automatically players you should get rid of. They’re players whose current value might be difficult to maintain.
When evaluating these fantasy football buy low sell high opportunities, consider your team’s current record, roster construction, positional needs, and playoff outlook.
Don’t make a trade just because a player appears on a buy-low or sell-high list. Make a trade because it improves your roster.
At this point in the season, every transaction should have a purpose. A couple of well-timed trades could be the difference between fighting for a playoff spot and making a legitimate championship run.
